US Macro Data Meets Expectations, Pre-Rate Cut Trend Continues, Long Hands Officially Start Selling (07.14~07.20)

The market, project, currency and other information, views and judgments mentioned in this article are for reference only and do not constitute any investment advice

BTC Price Trend

BTC opened this week at $119,130.81 and closed at $117,312.70, down 1.53%, with a high of $123,231.07 and a low of $115,697, with an amplitude of 6.32%, and trading volume significantly increased.

US macroeconomic data maintains expectations for a rate cut in September, and under the push of bullish sentiment, both off-market and on-market funds are actively buying, forming an upward合力, pushing BTC to a new high. It is expected that this pre-rate cut forward-looking trading行情 will continue in the short term.

With BTC breaking through historical highs, funds have rotated, and Altseason has started again. BTC's market share dropped sharply by 4.83% in a single week, falling to 61.5%.

At the same time, after BTC hit a new high of $120,000, long-term investors continued their periodic减持, providing selling pressure to the market and压制 the upward movement of prices.

Another factor worth警惕 is "reciprocal tariffs." The market currently prices tariffs to end with a lower rate increase, which will not have a significant impact on US inflation. However, the反复性 of Trump's decisions makes it difficult to confirm the conclusion now. But this uncertainty is likely to be largely resolved by the August 1 deadline.

Policy, Macro Finance, and Economic Data

Last week, we highlighted the CPI data, which did not exceed expectations this week.

On July 15, the US announced that the unadjusted annual CPI rate for June was 2.7%, in line with expectations, and the unadjusted core CPI annual rate for June was 2.9%, below the expected 3.0%.

The data met expectations, so the market did not react additionally. But CPI has indeed started to反弹,除了 the short-term rise in oil prices caused by the "Iran-Israel conflict," tariffs have also played a role. The second wave of温和 inflation has occurred, but it is not enough to force the Fed to turn hawkish. Whether the subsequent tariff impact will continue to明显放大 needs to be carefully watched.

On July 16, the US PPI data showed that the annual PPI rate for June was 2.3%, below the expected 2.5% and the previous value of 2.7%, showing some signs of economic cooling.

The微妙变化 in data pushed the FedWatch probability of a rate cut in September to just over 50%.

Uncertainty at the political and trade levels remains high. The Trump administration raised unified tariffs on Canada to 35% on July 11 and sent "circulars" to the EU, Mexico, and 23 countries with rates as high as 20–50% in the following days, with all measures set to take effect on August 1. At the same time, the $3.4 trillion "Big and Beautiful Act" is entering Senate review. If最终落地, the ten-year deficit rate could be pushed to 9%, exacerbating the stagflation risk of "fiscal-monetary" dual expansion along with tariff inflation.

Because the economic data met expectations, US stocks continued to rise, with the Nasdaq and S&P 500 up 1.51% and 0.59%, respectively, and the Dow Jones微跌 0.07%.

After持续下跌, the dollar index反弹 0.64% to 98.46, achieving two consecutive weeks of反弹. Both long and short-term US Treasury yields remained relatively stable. Gold微跌.

Against the backdrop of data基本符合预期 and a微降 in rate cut expectations, BTC小幅调整 after hitting a historical high, down 1.53%.

Crypto Market

This week, the Crypto market achieved another historic breakthrough.

On July 17, the US House of Representatives approved three major Crypto bills at once—the "GENIS Act," "CLARITY Act," and "Anti-CBDC Act." The "CLARITY Act" and "Anti-CBDC Act" have been transferred to the Senate for review, while the "GENIS Act" was swiftly signed by Trump the next day, marking the正式进入合规年代 of US stablecoins and also indicating that, beyond store of value, stablecoins are becoming the second major use case in the加密世界.

Boosted by this利好, ETH一扫颓势, surging over 20% in a single week, and带动 Altseason再次启动.

Technically, BTC is currently above the "Trump bottom," between the first and second上升趋势线 of the bull market.

Due to last week's抢跑 of the three major bills' passage, BTC大涨 9.08%. This week, BTC chose to adjust at high levels, with trading volume放大伴随 long-term holder selling. But with corporate purchases and散户 inflows through Spot ETF channels, BTC is likely to continue upward after adjustment.

Listed Companies' BTC Holdings Statistics

Currently, the scope of上市公司储备 Crypto has expanded from BTC to Altcoin and even MEMECoin, clearing the logical障碍 for Altseason's opening and providing资金 and情绪支持.

This week, funds流入 the market through BTC Spot ETF were $2.359 billion, while the ETH Spot ETF channel reached $2.258 billion. On July 17 and 18, the inflow of funds through the ETH Spot ETF channel exceeded that of the BTC Spot ETF, marking a historic milestone.

As BTC展开 the fourth wave of上涨, and with the高涨热情 of public companies and US散户, BTC long-term holders started大幅抛售.

eMerge Engine on-chain data shows that over 150,000 BTC in long-term holder positions moved last week. On exchanges, both long and short-term holders sold a total of 190,000 BTC, with the selling scale明显放大.

Long and Short-Term Holder Selling Statistics (Weekly)

In the progress of a bull market, long-term holders will持续抛售, which符合历史规律. Its impact on price and走势 depends on the absorption degree of buying power to selling pressure. This needs to be closely watched in the后市.

EMC Labs

EMC Labs (Emergent Labs) was established in April 2023 by加密资产 investors and data scientists. Focused on blockchain industry research and Crypto secondary market investment, with industry前瞻, insight, and data mining as core competencies, it is committed to participating in the蓬勃发展的 blockchain industry through research and investment, promoting blockchain and加密资产 to bring福祉 to humanity.

For more information, please visit: https://www.emc.fund